UFC mega-star Conor McGregor took to social media a few weeks ago to announce that he won’t be fighting UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. Instead, he’ll try his hand at boxing again, and he announced it will be against influencer and WWE Superstar Logan Paul, the older brother of influencer and boxer Jake Paul.

Now it’s time to price Paul-McGregor.

Let’s assume it’s a standard 12-round match, with three-minute rounds and 10-ounce gloves. Paul fought at 227 pounds against Tyson and McGregor hovers around 170 these days. So, let’s say they box around 195.

Just typing out the fight parameters gets the juices flowing. 

The Paul-Tyson match drew 108 million viewers with a reported $80 million purse. Some experts believe Paul-McGregor has a bigger global impact, which could lead to a potential purse that reaches nine figures when the dust settles.

You can almost hear the money printing.

“It would be the biggest fight possible for boxing,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray said from his Las Vegas office.

“Paul -200 [risk $200 to win $100] seems fair,” Murray continued. “That feels like a decent opening price. There’s no reason to go crazy high because there’s always so much McGregor money in these big fights.

And price sensitivity? Pfft. Forget it.

“You couldn’t stop people from betting McGregor,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews recalled. “I was one of the first people to post that fight, and we opened Mayweather -2700. I think it closed at -500.

“Maybe Paul -150?” WynnBET senior trader Motoi Pearson guessed. “It helps that McGregor is not a 58-year-old man. That seems important.”

“Tyson was so old,” Rampart Casino sportsbook director Duane Colucci added. “McGregor is a much bigger challenge. On the blind, I say Paul -125 just because of McGregor’s inactivity.”

“I think Paul’s around a -240 favorite,” Golden Nugget executive sportsbook director Tony Miller forecasted. “He’s a bigger puncher. The fight won’t go the distance. McGregor will get all the public love and sharps will lay the price closer to fight time. We’ll probably all be rooting for Paul.”

“Jake Paul -175, Conor McGregor +155,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman predicted. “In these exhibition bouts, you tend to see plenty of plus-price support show up.”

Some bettors I know would love Paul at a cheap price.

“The realistic line should be closer to -340,” professional bettor David Woodley argued. “Paul is in his prime, and he’s been boxing for years now. McGregor is also like 5-foot-8 and would have to put on 30 pounds. My head is spinning thinking about that. I would bet the farm on Paul at -200.”

Let’s also not get it twisted: Tyson nostalgia affected the market. Memories of early knockouts from years past lingered in the minds of many and, believe it or not, a Tyson first-round knockout was the most-popular bet at several shops.

The day of the fight, Circa Sports told my FOX Sports teammate Patrick Everson they needed [Paul] “for our lungs, and we’re comfortable with that.”

You could tell almost right away Tyson wouldn’t win.

“Paul’s size, power and consistency were impressive,” professional bettor Brandon Wittmyer said. “He was truly underrated by the betting market. Paul has trained well and really improved over the last six fights or so.

“Paul could’ve been -10000 against Tyson.” 

McGregor’s announcement comes just weeks after a civil court jury in Ireland ruled in favor of a woman, Nikita Hand, who said McGregor sexually assaulted her in December 2018.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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